Use case 01 / 05 · Post-subsidy (Ü20) pipeline
The Ü20 wave: which systems lose their subsidy, and when
Germany's EEG pays a fixed feed-in tariff for exactly 20 years. Because every system's commissioning date is in the data, we compute the exit cohort for every year, the moment an owner needs a new plan (self-consumption + storage, a PPA, or repowering).
Solar systems reaching EEG subsidy end, per year
amber = 2026 onwardY: systems
Source: aggregated from multiple publicly available energy datasets. Own analysis.
Exit cohorts by year
| Exit year | Commissioned | Systems | Capacity | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2004 | 43,235 | 596.3 MW | 43,235 |
| 2025 | 2005 | 63,328 | 876.6 MW | 106,563 |
| 2026 | 2006 | 63,045 | 837.6 MW | 169,608 |
| 2027 | 2007 | 76,444 | 1,248.2 MW | 246,052 |
| 2028 | 2008 | 114,973 | 1,970 MW | 361,025 |
| 2029 | 2009 | 181,931 | 4,428.9 MW | 542,956 |
| 2030 | 2010 | 257,642 | 7,559.8 MW | 800,598 |
| 2031 | 2011 | 259,628 | 7,961.4 MW | 1,060,226 |
| 2032 | 2012 | 173,485 | 6,846.6 MW | 1,233,711 |
| 2033 | 2013 | 119,164 | 3,120.1 MW | 1,352,875 |
| 2034 | 2014 | 72,128 | 1,757.7 MW | 1,425,003 |
| 2035 | 2015 | 47,754 | 1,408.9 MW | 1,472,757 |
Source: aggregated from multiple publicly available energy datasets. Own analysis.
The window: the 2009–2012 build-out means 259,628 systems exit in 2031 alone. These owners suddenly earn only the market value for their power, the exact moment a battery, a PPA or repowering becomes attractive.
Turn it into a call list
Filter: commissioned 2005–2008 · > 10 kWp · state = Bayern → a dated, prioritised list of systems whose subsidy has just ended or ends within 24 months. Add the operator cluster to reach portfolios in one deal.
What this enables
- • Dated pipeline of subsidy exits, 24–36 months ahead
- • Segment by size for repowering (large) vs storage/PPA (small rooftop)
- • Time outreach to the exit month, not blanket campaigns
- • Size the annual addressable market per region
Who it's for
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